|Uprising a Fear of Iranian Regime as Elections Draw Near|
The disagreements about the candidates have split the Khamenei faction into 4 camps:
1.Avoid participation who was the supporters of Ahmadinejad
2.The suppressive forces, JAMNA who supports Raisi and Qalibaf
3.Motalefeh who supports Mirsalim
4.Fundamentalists who support Rouhani
Both Rouhani and Jahangir asked for Khamenei’s permission in February 2017 and Rouhani stated that if Khamenei had someone else in mind he would drop out.
JAMNA was created several months ago with the aim of creating unity among various Khamenei factions to support a single presidential candidate. The leaders of this faction are Nateq Nouri, Ali Larijani, Ali Motahari and a number of struggling clerics and clergy in Qom.
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The JAMNA coalition wants Raisi to become the next president, Khamenei approved his candidacy in March 2017. Qalibaf had initiated his campaign a year before the election. Qalibaf refused to register as a candidate after the IRGC and Khamenei supported Raisi. Khamenei’s office asked him to register so that he could appear in presidential debates and to make revelations against Rouhani. At the same time, he would portray Raisi as a non-partisan actor. Qalibaf should opt out in favor of Raisi. Qalibaf is registered as an opponent to Rouhani so Jahangiri registered as a candidate to support Rouhani.Khamenei has staged this to make it appear as if there are real competition in the election. He wants a large voter turnout in order to fool the international community into believing that the regime enjoys popular legitimacy. Khamenei also invites foreign reporters to specific polling stations where the regime's supporters and agents line up to make it look like all Iranians are voting. The regime is also preventing the reporters from browsing other polling stations. Domestic reporters will face threats and intimidation while covering other stations.
The IRGC has created fake identification cards and is also using the ID cards of deceased people to vote. Another trick the regime are using is that of increasing the votes for each candidate four or five fold to show a higher voter turnout.
The truth of this election is that there will be no change no matter which candidate becomes president. All candidates are in fact approved by Khamenei and no one of them will become president if Khamenei disapproves. The biggest fear for Khamenei is to experience an uprising like the one in 2009. This was a big scare for the regime and it showed the regime that they are not as popular as they think. People show their discontent with the regime in different protests around Iran.